NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
111–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI212238237111
NY193133219113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 34 27 16 4
Nikola Vucevic S 36 21 9 1
Lonzo Ball S 30 14 4 4
Julian Phillips 23 12 6 0
Coby White S 41 11 2 6
Kevin Huerter 19 9 1 1
Ayo Dosunmu 28 5 5 3
Matas Buzelis S 24 5 7 1
Tre Jones 13 5 1 0
Zach Collins 15 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 43 32 18 2
Miles McBride S 42 23 6 3
Jalen Brunson S 38 22 3 12
Mikal Bridges S 44 13 10 5
Precious Achiuwa S 46 11 9 0
Landry Shamet 17 7 1 1
Cameron Payne 17 3 2 5
Ariel Hukporti 17 2 5 0
Delon Wright 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonzo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
2 OG Anunoby NY
10%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Lonzo Ball CHI
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
41%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.1 8.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.9 9.4 3.2
3 Coby White CHI 19.6 3.4 4.2
4 Josh Giddey CHI 17.9 5.6 5.7
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.4 9.9 3.7
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.3 3.8 3.7
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.7 4.0 2.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.5 2.8 4.7
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.3 3.8 1.3
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 12.1 7.2 1.4
11 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.1 3.0 2.9
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.9 5.1 0.9
13 Miles McBride NY 7.5 1.6 1.5
14 Tre Jones CHI 5.7 1.6 2.7
15 Cameron Payne NY 5.7 1.4 2.7
16 Dalen Terry CHI 3.9 1.6 1.1
17 Landry Shamet NY 3.5 1.0 0.7
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.2 0.9 0.5
19 Jevon Carter CHI 3.2 0.9 0.9
20 Kevin Huerter CHI 3.1 1.4 1.0
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.1 1.4 0.8
22 Julian Phillips CHI 2.8 1.1 0.5
23 Delon Wright NY 2.8 1.3 1.5
24 Zach Collins CHI 2.4 1.3 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 1.9 0.4
26 Matt Ryan NY 1.8 0.7 0.4
27 Tyler Kolek NY 1.7 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.