NBA games

CLE @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
110–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24243527110
BKN1931272097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BKN
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 26 5 2
Evan Mobley S 30 18 13 1
Darius Garland S 29 18 2 9
Jarrett Allen S 25 16 20 0
De'Andre Hunter 27 9 4 1
Ty Jerome 17 6 1 3
Isaac Okoro 17 5 1 1
Max Strus S 24 5 2 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 3 3 1 0
Sam Merrill 25 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 29 18 3 2
Keon Johnson S 26 16 4 1
Trendon Watford 21 13 4 3
Ziaire Williams S 31 10 7 2
Jalen Wilson 26 10 5 2
Nic Claxton S 28 8 9 4
Tyrese Martin 17 7 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 7 10 3
Killian Hayes 21 5 1 3
D'Angelo Russell S 18 3 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 D'Angelo Russell BKN
12%
3 Keon Johnson BKN
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
10 Cam Thomas BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.3 4.1 4.1
2 Darius Garland CLE 22.2 3.1 6.1
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.8 3.9 5.3
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.8 10.1 3.3
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.2 3.9 2.6
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 16.3 3.7 1.8
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 16.2 3.5 4.4
8 Keon Johnson BKN 14.8 4.7 2.4
9 Ty Jerome CLE 14.5 3.1 3.5
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.0 10.9 2.1
11 Nic Claxton BKN 11.4 7.5 1.6
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.0 3.5 2.2
13 Max Strus CLE 9.4 4.8 2.5
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.0 4.2 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 7.6 2.6 1.1
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.6 5.8 1.4
17 Trendon Watford BKN 7.3 2.7 1.3
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.7 3.8 1.3
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.5 1.9 1.4
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.1 2.4 1.0
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.5 1.5 1.3
22 Maxwell Lewis BKN 2.5 1.2 0.5
23 Luke Travers CLE 1.2 1.1 0.5
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.2 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.