NBA games

ORL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
114–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL21383124114
ATL33252327108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home ATL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 36 10 5
Franz Wagner S 33 25 7 5
Cole Anthony S 32 17 5 3
Anthony Black 15 10 2 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 9 15 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 6 4 0
Goga Bitadze 16 6 6 1
Tristan da Silva 18 3 1 1
Jonathan Isaac 11 2 1 0
Gary Harris 16 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 38 3 6
Caris LeVert 28 13 4 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 11 12 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 11 7 3
Dyson Daniels S 34 10 11 4
Georges Niang 26 8 6 2
Terance Mann 22 7 0 3
Dominick Barlow 7 5 2 0
Clint Capela 18 3 4 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 15 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
14%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
13%
5 Cole Anthony ORL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
9%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
10 Trae Young ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
20%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.0 6.0 3.8
2 Trae Young ATL 24.7 2.8 10.9
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.7 6.0 5.4
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.6 6.4 5.4
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.4 8.6 2.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 12.6 3.3 2.9
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.4 3.1 1.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.3 6.0 1.9
9 Georges Niang ATL 9.9 3.4 1.2
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.7 2.3 2.2
11 Caris LeVert ATL 7.9 3.5 2.7
12 Clint Capela ATL 7.4 7.8 0.7
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 6.5 2.4 1.0
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.1 1.4 2.2
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.3 2.4 1.1
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 6.2 1.0
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 4.5 0.5
18 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.6 2.2 1.1
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.5 3.7 0.6
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 1.2 0.8
21 Terance Mann ATL 3.5 2.2 1.0
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.4 1.2 0.5
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.3 1.7 0.5
24 Gary Harris ORL 2.9 1.0 0.7
25 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.8 1.9 0.3
26 Cory Joseph ORL 2.3 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.