NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
124–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36362824124
PHI28281830104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 31 28 0 4
Jaylen Brown S 27 20 6 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 17 4 1
Derrick White S 26 16 10 2
Jayson Tatum S 35 15 11 10
Al Horford 18 11 4 1
Jrue Holiday S 20 8 1 2
Luke Kornet 17 6 7 4
Sam Hauser 21 3 2 2
Baylor Scheierman 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 29 17 2 2
Tyrese Maxey S 34 16 5 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 16 4 0
Joel Embiid S 27 15 3 4
Quentin Grimes S 33 12 7 3
Ricky Council IV 22 10 1 2
Andre Drummond 13 8 7 1
Guerschon Yabusele 25 4 8 0
David Roddy 13 4 5 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 5 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes driving layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
3 Paul George PHI
9%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
8 Jared Butler PHI
7%
9 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
14%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.4 3.8 6.8
2 Joel Embiid PHI 24.9 9.4 4.8
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.3 6.3 5.7
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.9 5.8 4.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.7 6.7 2.9
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.9 7.1 2.4
7 Derrick White BOS 16.5 3.8 4.7
8 Paul George PHI 16.1 4.0 3.8
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 13.5 5.3 2.2
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.6 3.9 2.6
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.0 4.3 3.4
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 8.3 3.8 2.3
13 Jared Butler PHI 7.5 2.3 2.6
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 2.7 0.8
15 Al Horford BOS 6.0 5.7 1.1
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 4.6 1.4
17 Torrey Craig BOS 4.4 2.1 0.5
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.2 5.2 0.7
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.2 1.4 1.1
20 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 2.5 0.6
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.7 1.3 1.6
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.2 3.2 0.4
23 David Roddy PHI 3.0 2.0 0.8
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.5 1.2 0.5
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.