NBA games

MEM @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33263222113
IND28502425127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home IND
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 33 23 5 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 18 7 4
Jaylen Wells S 27 17 4 0
Ja Morant S 30 12 0 6
Santi Aldama 25 10 7 3
GG Jackson 17 9 4 0
Vince Williams Jr. 20 7 6 2
Luke Kennard 20 6 2 3
Zach Edey S 22 5 11 1
Brandon Clarke 10 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 22 5 9
Myles Turner S 33 17 10 2
Bennedict Mathurin 24 16 4 1
Pascal Siakam S 28 16 4 2
Aaron Nesmith S 24 13 7 1
Obi Toppin 20 12 5 1
Andrew Nembhard S 30 11 3 4
Ben Sheppard 14 7 1 0
T.J. McConnell 16 7 2 7
Thomas Bryant 16 6 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
3 Ja Morant MEM
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
8%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Thomas Bryant IND
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
20%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.5 5.1 3.0
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.4 6.2 6.0
3 Ja Morant MEM 22.6 4.4 7.6
4 Pascal Siakam IND 20.4 5.8 3.2
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.7 3.8 7.1
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.3 4.2 1.8
7 Myles Turner IND 14.2 4.1 1.6
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.6 2.9 4.4
9 Santi Aldama MEM 10.0 4.6 1.9
10 GG Jackson MEM 9.9 3.7 1.2
11 Luke Kennard MEM 9.7 2.5 3.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.6 4.2 1.2
13 Thomas Bryant IND 9.0 5.1 2.0
14 Zach Edey MEM 8.7 7.7 1.1
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.1 5.1 1.0
16 Jaylen Wells MEM 7.8 2.9 1.5
17 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.4 3.0 3.1
18 T.J. McConnell IND 7.4 2.5 4.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.3 1.5
20 Aaron Nesmith IND 5.7 2.6 1.6
21 Marvin Bagley III MEM 5.3 3.7 0.7
22 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.0 3.1 1.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 2.3 1.0
24 Jay Huff MEM 2.4 1.1 0.5
25 John Konchar MEM 2.4 2.3 0.5
26 Johnny Furphy IND 1.6 1.0 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.