NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
101–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC24323114101
MIN37273319116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 24 8 9
Jalen Williams S 34 20 3 5
Luguentz Dort S 32 14 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 30 11 12 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 10 12 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 10 3 1
Kenrich Williams 19 9 3 1
Adam Flagler 4 2 0 0
Isaiah Joe 21 1 1 3
Dillon Jones 8 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 38 27 14 7
Anthony Edwards S 36 23 7 7
Jaden McDaniels S 37 21 6 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 14 6 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 29 13 6 1
Luka Garza 15 8 8 0
Rob Dillingham 21 6 3 5
Jaylen Clark S 24 4 3 1
Tristen Newton 2 0 0 0
Joe Ingles 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:39 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
8 Naz Reid MIN
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
13%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 4.0 6.8
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.6 5.8 6.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.3 5.0 5.0
4 Naz Reid MIN 18.0 6.2 3.3
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.7 7.0 2.8
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.8 4.7 1.7
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.0 6.8 1.8
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 4.1 3.1
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.6 2.8 1.4
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.5 10.1 3.3
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 3.7 1.7
12 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.8 2.0 3.4
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.6 6.8 2.4
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.6 3.4 1.6
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.1 2.0 0.8
16 Dillon Jones OKC 3.5 2.3 1.5
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 1.3 1.0
18 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 1.6 0.6
19 Joe Ingles MIN 3.1 1.3 1.6
20 Tristen Newton MIN 3.1 1.3 1.4
21 Alex Ducas OKC 2.8 1.4 0.5
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 2.3 0.5
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.1 1.2 0.5
24 Adam Flagler OKC 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.