MIA @ DAL
NBA
American Airlines Center
·Final
113–118
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 22 | 34 | 27 | 30 | 113 |
| DAL | 21 | 34 | 29 | 34 | 118 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA
away
home
DAL
45%
55%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro S | 37 | 40 | 8 | 3 |
| Kel'el Ware S | 32 | 17 | 9 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson S | 27 | 15 | 10 | 3 |
| Alec Burks | 28 | 12 | 7 | 4 |
| Duncan Robinson | 20 | 9 | 1 | 4 |
| Nikola Jovic | 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. S | 23 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| Davion Mitchell S | 38 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Pelle Larsson | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Max Christie ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Max Christie makes 17-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Kyrie Irving
DAL
12%
2
Bam Adebayo
MIA
12%
3
Tyler Herro
MIA
11%
4
P.J. Washington
DAL
9%
5
Andrew Wiggins
MIA
9%
6
Max Christie
DAL
9%
7
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
DAL
7%
8
Kel'el Ware
MIA
7%
9
Dante Exum
DAL
6%
10
Klay Thompson
DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyrie Irving | DAL | 24.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | 23.7 | 11.1 | 5.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Herro | MIA | 23.3 | 4.8 | 8.3 |
| 4 | P.J. Washington | DAL | 19.1 | 10.1 | 3.2 |
| 5 | Andrew Wiggins | MIA | 18.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 14.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| 7 | Klay Thompson | DAL | 14.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 8 | Max Christie | DAL | 14.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| 9 | Terry Rozier | MIA | 13.4 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 10 | Naji Marshall | DAL | 12.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 11 | Duncan Robinson | MIA | 11.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Kel'el Ware | MIA | 11.3 | 9.1 | 1.6 |
| 13 | Spencer Dinwiddie | DAL | 11.2 | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| 14 | Davion Mitchell | MIA | 10.6 | 2.3 | 4.9 |
| 15 | Dante Exum | DAL | 8.7 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 16 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 17 | Jaden Hardy | DAL | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Alec Burks | MIA | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Olivier-Maxence Prosper | DAL | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 20 | Kyle Anderson | MIA | 5.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 21 | Haywood Highsmith | MIA | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 22 | Kessler Edwards | DAL | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 23 | Pelle Larsson | MIA | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Brandon Williams | DAL | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 25 | Kevin Love | MIA | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 26 | Kylor Kelley | DAL | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.