SAC @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
133–140
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 29 | 36 | 30 | 32 | 6 | 133 |
| NO | 28 | 32 | 38 | 29 | 13 | 140 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC
away
home
NO
47%
53%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine S | 45 | 32 | 2 | 10 |
| Malik Monk S | 43 | 24 | 6 | 9 |
| Domantas Sabonis S | 43 | 22 | 28 | 5 |
| DeMar DeRozan S | 43 | 20 | 4 | 5 |
| Keegan Murray S | 36 | 13 | 8 | 3 |
| Trey Lyles | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Keon Ellis | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Jake LaRavia | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Javonte Green ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zach LaVine
SAC
13%
2
CJ McCollum
NO
12%
3
Trey Murphy III
NO
11%
4
Malik Monk
SAC
10%
5
Domantas Sabonis
SAC
10%
6
Zion Williamson
NO
9%
7
DeMar DeRozan
SAC
9%
8
Yves Missi
NO
8%
9
Keegan Murray
SAC
7%
10
Kelly Olynyk
NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
21%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Williamson | NO | 27.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 |
| 2 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 25.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Zach LaVine | SAC | 24.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| 4 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | 24.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 5 | CJ McCollum | NO | 23.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 6 | Malik Monk | SAC | 22.1 | 5.2 | 7.4 |
| 7 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC | 21.6 | 18.3 | 7.4 |
| 8 | Keegan Murray | SAC | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Keon Ellis | SAC | 11.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 10.3 | 2.4 | 4.8 |
| 11 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 12 | Jonas Valanciunas | SAC | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.0 |
| 13 | Bruce Brown | NO | 9.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 14 | Yves Missi | NO | 8.7 | 7.8 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Kelly Olynyk | NO | 6.7 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| 16 | Javonte Green | NO | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 17 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 |
| 18 | Trey Lyles | SAC | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| 19 | Jake LaRavia | SAC | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 20 | Daishen Nix | SAC | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 21 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 22 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| 23 | Jae Crowder | SAC | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 24 | Mason Jones | SAC | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 25 | Doug McDermott | SAC | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.