NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
105–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28342023105
HOU1929222898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 27 5 3
Jimmy Butler III S 35 19 8 4
Brandin Podziemski S 39 18 5 4
Draymond Green S 30 13 4 8
Moses Moody S 34 10 6 1
Pat Spencer 13 6 1 1
Kevon Looney 16 5 9 2
Gui Santos 17 5 2 2
Buddy Hield 14 2 1 0
Quinten Post 7 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Holiday S 37 25 8 4
Jock Landale 16 13 8 1
Nate Williams 18 11 2 3
Jeff Green 21 10 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 27 10 13 4
Jalen Green S 22 9 0 1
Dillon Brooks S 21 7 0 1
Cam Whitmore 10 6 1 1
Amen Thompson S 30 4 9 5
Jae'Sean Tate 27 3 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:22 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
16%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
6 Buddy Hield GS
7%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
9 Tari Eason HOU
6%
10 Aaron Holiday HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
18%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.1 4.0 5.8
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.1 4.8 4.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.4 9.9 4.3
4 Amen Thompson HOU 18.2 8.0 6.2
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.9 5.8 5.0
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.8 4.1 1.9
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.6 4.7 4.4
8 Tari Eason HOU 12.1 6.3 1.7
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.9 2.8 4.8
10 Moses Moody GS 11.5 3.5 1.6
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.8 3.6 1.9
12 Draymond Green GS 8.7 5.1 4.8
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.5 3.4 1.4
14 Quinten Post GS 7.6 3.6 1.6
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.3 7.4 1.2
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.5 1.2
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 6.3 1.6
18 Gui Santos GS 5.1 3.5 1.2
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.9 1.7 0.5
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 1.1
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.5 1.8 1.1
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 2.2 0.9
23 Pat Spencer GS 3.9 1.5 1.2
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.5 3.6 0.9
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.9 0.7
26 Jackson Rowe GS 3.2 1.8 0.7
27 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.9 2.3 0.6
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.