NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
114–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM39242130114
LAC28383626128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 23 6 4
Jaylen Wells S 31 18 3 1
GG Jackson 22 15 8 3
Santi Aldama 24 14 5 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 13 6 2
Luke Kennard S 31 12 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 16 8 3 4
Zach Edey S 20 4 5 0
Brandon Clarke 19 4 2 0
John Konchar 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 34 25 5 4
Norman Powell S 33 18 5 2
James Harden S 35 18 8 10
Amir Coffey 18 15 3 1
Kris Dunn S 21 14 3 5
Ivica Zubac S 33 12 13 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 21 9 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 18 7 2 1
Cam Christie 3 5 0 0
Nicolas Batum 13 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"James Harden makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 Norman Powell LAC
13%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.4 4.9 3.2
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.7 4.2 3.1
3 James Harden LAC 23.1 4.9 10.5
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.4 6.2 6.6
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 19.8 5.1 3.8
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.6 11.8 3.0
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 13.0 5.0 1.7
8 Santi Aldama MEM 11.7 5.2 1.7
9 Amir Coffey LAC 10.5 2.0 1.3
10 Luke Kennard MEM 10.2 2.7 3.8
11 Zach Edey MEM 9.9 8.3 1.3
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.1 3.4 1.3
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.7 5.5 1.2
14 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.5 2.8 1.7
15 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.2 1.9 1.7
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.2 3.3 3.3
17 Kris Dunn LAC 3.9 2.7 2.2
18 Patty Mills LAC 3.9 1.3 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.6 2.5 0.8
20 Jay Huff MEM 2.8 1.1 0.4
21 John Konchar MEM 2.8 3.3 0.7
22 Kobe Brown LAC 2.8 2.0 0.7
23 Zyon Pullin MEM 2.6 1.2 0.6
24 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 2.5 1.3 0.7
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.0 1.0 0.4
26 Kai Jones LAC 1.9 1.3 0.4
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.7 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.