NBA games

GS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
107111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31252229107
DAL32252628111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DAL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 25 5 8
Jimmy Butler III S 35 21 9 7
Moses Moody 27 14 5 0
Gary Payton II 16 14 2 0
Draymond Green S 32 13 5 5
Brandin Podziemski 24 8 2 5
Quinten Post S 12 5 4 0
Kevon Looney 15 4 8 2
Buddy Hield S 29 3 3 0
Gui Santos 12 0 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 42 7 0
Max Christie S 39 17 5 4
Klay Thompson S 34 17 7 2
Brandon Williams 15 12 1 0
Naji Marshall 30 10 8 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 24 6 3 6
Kessler Edwards S 33 4 6 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 18 3 2 1
Kylor Kelley 2 0 0 0
Jaden Hardy 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Olivier-Maxence Prosper · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 1-foot two point shot (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
4 Buddy Hield GS
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
9%
6 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Kessler Edwards DAL
8%
10 Dante Exum DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
51%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.5 3.8 6.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.9 5.3 5.6
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.3 9.9 3.2
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.1 5.1 5.1
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.3 5.1 4.3
6 Klay Thompson DAL 13.7 3.8 2.2
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.6 2.5 4.2
8 Max Christie DAL 13.0 4.2 2.6
9 Naji Marshall DAL 12.8 4.1 3.4
10 Moses Moody GS 11.3 3.2 1.9
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.4 3.7 2.4
12 Draymond Green GS 9.0 4.5 5.2
13 Dante Exum DAL 9.0 2.0 3.2
14 Quinten Post GS 8.5 3.8 1.9
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.8 1.7 1.5
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.7 3.0 1.2
17 Gui Santos GS 6.2 3.4 1.2
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 6.7 2.0
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.5 2.5 1.4
20 Kessler Edwards DAL 4.6 3.4 1.1
21 Pat Spencer GS 4.5 1.7 1.4
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 3.9 1.0
23 Jackson Rowe GS 3.8 2.0 0.9
24 Kylor Kelley DAL 3.7 2.9 0.6
25 Brandon Williams DAL 2.6 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.