NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
119–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30263033119
UTAH33314027131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 30 19 3 1
LeBron James S 34 18 6 7
Luka Doncic S 23 16 4 4
Austin Reaves S 36 15 5 11
Dalton Knecht 17 10 0 0
Shake Milton 12 9 4 1
Bronny James 8 9 0 1
Markieff Morris 8 5 0 1
Jaxson Hayes S 7 4 2 1
Christian Koloko 9 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 32 32 5 0
Jordan Clarkson S 29 21 9 7
Keyonte George 33 20 7 10
John Collins S 27 17 8 1
Walker Kessler S 33 16 8 1
Isaiah Collier S 30 10 7 9
Cody Williams 17 7 0 1
Johnny Juzang 14 3 0 0
Kyle Filipowski 15 3 3 1
Brice Sensabaugh 10 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 4-foot dunk (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
9%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
8 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
10 KJ Martin UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
19%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.5 9.0 10.2
2 Luka Doncic LAL 26.6 8.5 8.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 24.0 5.3 6.9
4 John Collins UTAH 19.0 8.6 1.9
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.7 3.8 6.0
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.5 3.1 3.6
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.2 5.3 1.9
8 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.0 5.7 1.6
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.9 5.0 8.4
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.3 11.1 1.9
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.0 3.3 2.2
12 KJ Martin UTAH 9.6 3.8 1.3
13 Jordan Goodwin LAL 8.8 5.3 1.3
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.8 3.4 1.3
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.5 4.0 1.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.1 5.4 1.6
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.0 2.1 0.8
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.0 2.2 1.6
19 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 5.6 1.7 1.0
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.8 5.4 1.3
21 Shake Milton LAL 4.3 1.8 1.8
22 Markieff Morris LAL 3.5 1.6 0.9
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.6 2.0 0.6
24 Alex Len LAL 1.9 1.6 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 1.8 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.