NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
121–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27293530121
DEN40353225132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 26 3 6
Jabari Walker 19 17 7 1
Donovan Clingan S 31 17 20 2
Deni Avdija S 28 14 5 1
Shaedon Sharpe 30 14 4 7
Dalano Banton 31 14 1 5
Toumani Camara S 38 13 2 2
Kris Murray S 20 6 3 3
Rayan Rupert 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 42 55 4 5
Nikola Jokic S 36 26 15 10
Christian Braun S 45 21 10 6
Zeke Nnaji S 37 16 5 1
Julian Strawther S 25 11 5 1
Jalen Pickett 29 3 3 1
DeAndre Jordan 12 0 5 2
Hunter Tyson 6 0 0 0
Dario Saric 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Christian Braun DEN
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
12%
5 Jerami Grant POR
12%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
7 Julian Strawther DEN
10%
8 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
9%
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 9.5 9.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.9 4.2 6.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.5 3.2 5.7
4 Christian Braun DEN 18.5 6.6 3.3
5 Deni Avdija POR 18.0 5.5 4.6
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.4 3.6 1.8
7 Jerami Grant POR 14.1 3.3 2.0
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.1 3.3 5.5
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.5 7.1 2.1
10 Julian Strawther DEN 9.4 3.0 1.5
11 Dalano Banton POR 7.0 1.9 1.4
12 Donovan Clingan POR 5.0 6.4 1.0
13 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.7 3.3 0.7
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.7 1.7
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.2 4.9 0.8
16 Robert Williams III POR 4.0 5.9 0.7
17 Jabari Walker POR 3.9 2.8 0.8
18 Dario Saric DEN 3.8 2.9 1.4
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.6 0.6
20 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.2 0.7
21 Kris Murray POR 2.6 1.3 0.5
22 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.2 0.6
23 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 1.1 0.5
24 Trey Alexander DEN 2.3 1.3 0.6
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.2 1.6 0.5
26 Sidy Cissoko POR 1.7 0.6 0.3
27 Bryce McGowens POR 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.