NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
111–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34233519111
HOU32193335119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 42 37 5 9
Bol Bol S 33 15 4 0
Royce O'Neale S 35 14 4 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 26 11 4 3
Nick Richards S 28 11 13 0
Tyus Jones S 33 10 5 6
Collin Gillespie 15 9 1 3
Mason Plumlee 17 4 5 4
Ryan Dunn 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason S 34 25 9 4
Jalen Green S 37 22 3 5
Dillon Brooks S 31 18 2 3
Amen Thompson S 41 18 10 11
Alperen Sengun S 38 17 13 5
Steven Adams 10 5 6 0
Reed Sheppard 11 5 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 5 1 0
Cam Whitmore 22 4 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
5 Nick Richards PHX
8%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
8 Tari Eason HOU
6%
9 Bol Bol PHX
6%
10 Aaron Holiday HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.1 4.9 4.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.9 4.9 4.6
3 Amen Thompson HOU 20.5 8.7 6.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.0 10.5 4.8
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.7 4.4 1.9
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.2 2.9 5.0
7 Tyus Jones PHX 11.1 2.5 4.8
8 Tari Eason HOU 11.1 6.2 1.7
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 3.6 2.0
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.1 3.5 1.4
11 Nick Richards PHX 8.9 9.6 1.0
12 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.8 2.4 3.4
13 Bol Bol PHX 6.5 3.7 0.8
14 Steven Adams HOU 5.9 7.3 1.1
15 Jeff Green HOU 5.6 2.0 0.7
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.7 1.4
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.9 6.1 1.5
18 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.3 1.3 1.2
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 1.9 1.1
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.2 2.6 0.9
21 Jock Landale HOU 4.0 3.2 0.9
22 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.9 1.7 1.0
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.6 1.1 0.6
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.5 1.9 0.9
25 N'Faly Dante HOU 3.1 2.5 0.6
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.0 2.2 0.9
27 Monte Morris PHX 2.9 1.1 1.2
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.7 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.