NBA games

MIA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA3528308101
OKC23293132115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home OKC
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 35 27 15 4
Davion Mitchell S 35 14 1 3
Tyler Herro S 32 14 2 6
Andrew Wiggins S 34 13 4 3
Nikola Jovic 29 11 3 4
Alec Burks 28 11 9 1
Kel'el Ware S 24 7 6 0
Pelle Larsson 7 3 3 0
Haywood Highsmith 15 1 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 32 5 9
Jalen Williams S 31 18 6 3
Luguentz Dort S 32 17 2 1
Kenrich Williams 20 14 4 0
Aaron Wiggins S 28 11 5 2
Isaiah Joe 27 10 3 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 8 8 1
Jaylin Williams 15 3 5 3
Alex Caruso 13 2 1 2
Dillon Jones 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Alec Burks MIA
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
21%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 35.1 4.0 6.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.4 5.2 5.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.6 4.7 7.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.9 10.5 4.2
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.8 5.4 3.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.3 4.6 1.8
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.4 4.4 3.8
8 Terry Rozier MIA 12.9 4.0 2.5
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.2 9.7 1.4
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.0 2.6 2.4
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.9 10.8 3.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.9 2.7 1.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.7 1.9
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.2 2.2 4.6
15 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 3.0 2.9
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.7 3.8 2.0
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.7 6.9 2.4
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 3.7 1.7
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.9 3.4 1.9
20 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 2.4 0.9
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.0 2.2 0.9
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.9 1.5 0.7
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.4 1.6
24 Alex Ducas OKC 3.5 1.6 0.6
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.1 1.9 0.7
26 Adam Flagler OKC 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.