NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
119–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34312727119
NO26372325111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Ellis 29 27 5 1
DeMar DeRozan S 37 24 4 6
Zach LaVine S 35 23 3 7
Malik Monk S 37 17 4 4
Domantas Sabonis S 33 16 15 5
Keegan Murray S 34 6 7 5
Jonas Valanciunas 15 5 4 0
Trey Lyles 9 1 2 0
Jake LaRavia 11 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 33 9 7
Trey Murphy III S 37 19 4 5
Jose Alvarado S 32 18 3 9
CJ McCollum S 31 14 3 3
Antonio Reeves 18 8 6 2
Yves Missi S 28 8 9 0
Jordan Hawkins 14 5 0 1
Bruce Brown 26 4 3 1
Javonte Green 12 2 2 0
Karlo Matkovic 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jose Alvarado · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 CJ McCollum NO
10%
4 Malik Monk SAC
10%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
8%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Karlo Matkovic NO
7%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.7 7.8 5.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.9 5.5 5.3
3 CJ McCollum NO 24.1 4.6 4.3
4 Zach LaVine SAC 24.0 4.2 4.7
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.5 4.4 3.6
6 Malik Monk SAC 21.6 4.7 7.2
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.9 13.0 7.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 6.5 1.9
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.0 2.7 1.7
10 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 10.1 7.2 2.1
11 Jose Alvarado NO 9.8 2.6 4.6
12 Keon Ellis SAC 9.6 3.5 2.0
13 Bruce Brown NO 9.4 3.7 1.7
14 Yves Missi NO 8.8 8.0 1.4
15 Kelly Olynyk NO 6.7 3.1 2.4
16 Javonte Green NO 6.2 3.6 1.4
17 Trey Lyles SAC 5.4 3.8 1.0
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.4 4.5 1.2
19 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.8 3.6 1.3
20 Daishen Nix SAC 4.6 1.6 1.2
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.6 4.0 1.2
22 Antonio Reeves NO 3.9 1.2 1.2
23 Mason Jones SAC 3.1 1.8 1.1
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.9 1.8 0.5
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.