NBA games

MIL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
103–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL36151933103
MIN24261932101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. 29 21 1 2
Kyle Kuzma S 39 19 13 4
Taurean Prince S 36 11 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 22 11 8 5
Brook Lopez S 27 11 7 2
AJ Green 19 9 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 19 9 3 1
Bobby Portis 23 8 6 4
Ryan Rollins S 26 4 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 28 7 4
Naz Reid S 33 22 13 2
Rudy Gobert S 38 20 14 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 20 11 5 6
Jaden McDaniels S 39 10 8 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 5 5 5
Joe Ingles 14 3 4 4
Rob Dillingham 13 2 1 0
Jaylen Clark 14 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
24%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
7 Naz Reid MIN
7%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
7%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.5 5.6 6.4
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.7 6.6 2.4
3 Naz Reid MIN 16.8 6.0 3.3
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.7 7.4 3.2
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.8 11.8 2.5
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.0 8.9 2.3
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.1 3.9 2.8
8 Brook Lopez MIL 11.1 4.3 1.6
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.7 3.0 1.8
10 Taurean Prince MIL 10.3 3.7 2.4
11 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.2 2.3 4.3
12 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.2 3.8 2.6
13 AJ Green MIL 7.0 2.7 1.2
14 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.3 2.1 0.9
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.4 3.1 1.5
16 Leonard Miller MIN 4.2 2.7 0.7
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.1 2.2 1.3
18 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.1 1.3 1.3
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.0 2.0 0.8
20 Tristen Newton MIN 4.0 1.8 1.7
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 1.2 0.8
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.3 1.4
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.9 1.7 0.6
24 Tyler Smith MIL 2.7 1.2 0.4
25 Jericho Sims MIL 1.2 2.0 0.3
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.1 1.3 0.3
27 Liam Robbins MIL 1.0 0.8 0.3
28 Stanley Umude MIL 1.0 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.