NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
128–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32343032128
CHI32272328110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 29 5 7
Tobias Harris S 33 19 5 0
Ausar Thompson S 28 19 5 7
Jalen Duren S 30 16 14 5
Malik Beasley 23 14 3 1
Isaiah Stewart 18 12 3 1
Dennis Schroder 19 8 2 4
Simone Fontecchio 15 6 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 25 5 4 2
Ronald Holland II 13 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 23 3 6
Nikola Vucevic S 34 21 14 5
Josh Giddey S 31 17 2 3
Tre Jones 19 15 2 2
Matas Buzelis S 26 11 1 1
Jalen Smith 14 11 5 0
Coby White S 35 7 4 3
Patrick Williams 18 3 1 1
Kevin Huerter 18 2 4 2
Julian Phillips 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes dunk (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.2 5.8 10.2
2 Coby White CHI 19.5 3.3 4.7
3 Josh Giddey CHI 17.4 6.5 5.8
4 Malik Beasley DET 16.1 3.2 2.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.1 9.3 3.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.8 5.6 2.0
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.7 11.6 3.8
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.2 2.7 4.2
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 6.4 2.9
10 Matas Buzelis CHI 11.7 4.1 1.3
11 Patrick Williams CHI 10.4 4.7 1.8
12 Dennis Schroder DET 9.9 2.8 4.2
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.8 3.1 2.0
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.2 5.6 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.8 1.6 3.0
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.6 4.9 1.5
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.3 2.4 1.4
18 Tre Jones CHI 6.3 1.7 2.8
19 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.1 3.5 1.2
20 Lindy Waters III DET 5.1 2.6 1.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 2.2 1.3
22 Kevin Huerter CHI 4.3 1.7 1.1
23 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.3 1.4 0.8
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.4 1.1
25 Paul Reed DET 3.9 3.7 1.0
26 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.9 0.7
27 Zach Collins CHI 3.3 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.