NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
131–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE41273231131
TOR17263530108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 21 6 5
De'Andre Hunter 27 18 5 0
Sam Merrill 26 16 2 0
Darius Garland S 27 15 2 8
Max Strus S 26 14 5 6
Jarrett Allen S 28 13 10 3
Evan Mobley S 28 12 15 5
Jaylon Tyson 17 8 0 1
Craig Porter Jr. 21 7 4 5
Tristan Thompson 4 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 27 4 4
Scottie Barnes S 33 16 11 7
Ochai Agbaji 25 15 3 0
Immanuel Quickley S 30 15 2 3
Jamison Battle 11 11 4 1
Jonathan Mogbo S 29 8 5 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 6 4 2
Orlando Robinson 18 6 4 2
Jamal Shead 18 2 0 2
Gradey Dick S 25 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes technical free throw"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.5 4.1 6.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 24.8 3.5 6.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.0 7.5 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.8 9.9 3.1
5 RJ Barrett TOR 18.6 5.9 5.0
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.4 3.8 2.1
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.5 3.1 4.8
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.5 11.8 2.4
9 Gradey Dick TOR 12.2 3.9 1.4
10 Max Strus CLE 9.7 4.8 2.6
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.3 3.9 1.3
12 Jamal Shead TOR 9.2 2.0 4.2
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.7 2.7 1.5
14 Sam Merrill CLE 8.5 2.9 1.4
15 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 3.7 0.8
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.9 3.0 1.3
17 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.7 3.4 1.3
18 Orlando Robinson TOR 4.6 3.6 0.8
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.3 1.9 1.2
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.9 1.7 0.7
21 Luke Travers CLE 2.7 1.7 0.9
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 3.4 1.0
23 Emoni Bates CLE 2.4 0.9 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.