NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
148–149
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ATL2931413611148
NY3830363312149

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 44 38 1 19
Dyson Daniels S 36 23 4 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 41 21 14 5
Georges Niang 34 21 4 3
Caris LeVert 35 20 10 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 16 2 1
Dominick Barlow 12 6 3 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 16 2 3 1
Terance Mann 16 1 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 47 44 10 3
Jalen Brunson S 43 36 3 8
Precious Achiuwa S 42 26 8 1
Josh Hart S 46 18 10 6
Mikal Bridges S 43 11 3 4
Cameron Payne 15 10 3 4
Landry Shamet 18 4 1 1
Miles McBride 8 0 0 1
Ariel Hukporti 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 8-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Josh Hart NY
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
6%
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
46%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.2 3.0 14.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.7 3.0 7.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.7 11.3 4.1
4 Mikal Bridges NY 19.9 3.7 4.2
5 Josh Hart NY 18.7 10.1 6.6
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.4 6.9 5.9
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.8 4.0 2.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.3 8.2 3.0
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.1 3.3 1.6
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.5 6.7 1.7
11 Georges Niang ATL 9.7 3.5 1.3
12 Miles McBride NY 9.6 2.5 1.9
13 Caris LeVert ATL 8.8 3.5 2.9
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.2 1.6 2.4
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.7 1.7 2.6
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 4.1 0.9
17 Terance Mann ATL 5.7 2.8 1.7
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.1 2.1 1.6
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.1 1.9 0.6
20 Landry Shamet NY 4.0 1.5 0.9
21 Delon Wright NY 3.5 1.7 1.7
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.0 1.9 0.3
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.6 0.6
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.6 1.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.