NBA games

IND @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
134–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
IND2522373614134
WSH2733372310130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home WSH
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 33 31 10 2
Bennedict Mathurin 33 28 5 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 20 2 7
Pascal Siakam S 39 15 5 5
T.J. McConnell 22 10 1 9
Thomas Bryant S 27 9 11 5
Andrew Nembhard S 28 9 3 4
Aaron Nesmith S 21 8 1 1
Ben Sheppard 24 4 2 1
Johnny Furphy 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 41 42 5 5
Corey Kispert 27 21 4 0
Bub Carrington S 45 18 8 5
Kyshawn George S 36 14 9 1
Malcolm Brogdon 15 12 0 6
Alex Sarr S 32 9 6 4
Richaun Holmes 19 5 7 0
AJ Johnson 10 3 0 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 3 5 8
Tristan Vukcevic 2 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Bub Carrington makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Richaun Holmes WSH
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Thomas Bryant IND
8%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.4 7.3 3.7
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.3 4.5 5.9
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.7 4.2 7.5
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.2 4.5 1.9
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.2 5.1 4.2
6 Corey Kispert WSH 13.4 3.5 2.0
7 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 12.5 3.8 5.0
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.6 3.3 5.0
9 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 2.6 4.0
10 Kyshawn George WSH 10.4 4.1 2.2
11 Alex Sarr WSH 10.3 6.3 1.6
12 Thomas Bryant IND 9.8 4.8 1.9
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 3.7 1.3
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 3.0 4.7
15 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.3 6.0 1.5
16 Ben Sheppard IND 8.1 2.8 1.8
17 Jaylen Nowell WSH 7.7 2.6 2.0
18 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.9 3.1 1.8
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.2 3.7 1.0
20 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.9 2.9 1.2
21 AJ Johnson WSH 2.8 1.0 0.9
22 Jaylen Martin WSH 2.8 1.2 0.5
23 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.5 0.6
24 Colby Jones WSH 2.0 1.5 0.5
25 Enrique Freeman IND 1.9 1.0 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.