NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
86–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2026192186
ORL28163325102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 19 8 4
Damion Baugh 27 16 5 3
Josh Green S 29 16 0 1
Taj Gibson 22 10 12 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 16 9 8 1
Isaiah Wong 16 7 0 1
Elfrid Payton S 32 4 4 7
Tidjane Salaun 20 3 3 1
Nick Smith Jr. S 16 2 1 3
DaQuan Jeffries 26 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 30 24 8 6
Anthony Black 24 18 4 3
Franz Wagner S 32 16 7 2
Cole Anthony S 22 13 6 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 28 11 11 0
Caleb Houstan 12 6 1 0
Jett Howard 26 6 2 5
Cory Joseph 3 3 0 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 16 2 3 0
Trevelin Queen 10 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 6-foot two point shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
20%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
17%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
4 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
10%
5 Cole Anthony ORL
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Josh Green CHA
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
9 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
0%
10 Elfrid Payton CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.0 5.9 4.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 8.5 4.3
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.0 6.7 5.6
4 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.1 3.4 3.5
5 Cole Anthony ORL 12.6 3.5 3.5
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 5.8 2.6
7 Josh Green CHA 9.8 2.7 1.6
8 Anthony Black ORL 9.4 2.4 2.6
9 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.6 7.3 2.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.5 2.7 1.3
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.0 3.1 1.5
12 Seth Curry CHA 7.4 2.1 1.3
13 Elfrid Payton CHA 6.2 3.3 5.4
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.2 3.6 1.2
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 5.3 0.7
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.7 6.3 1.2
17 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.6 2.9 1.6
18 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.6 1.4 0.9
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.4 2.1 1.0
20 Gary Harris ORL 4.0 1.4 0.9
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 1.5 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.5 1.2 0.6
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.2 3.7 0.7
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.