NBA games

SA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA19283422103
BOS37292723116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BOS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 23 3 5
Stephon Castle 24 20 4 3
Victor Wembanyama S 36 17 13 4
Harrison Barnes S 30 14 7 3
Devin Vassell S 32 8 2 3
Julian Champagnie 19 7 3 1
Keldon Johnson 17 5 1 3
Chris Paul S 28 5 2 8
Jeremy Sochan 13 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 32 14 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 37 29 6 1
Derrick White S 39 19 7 9
Sam Hauser S 29 12 7 0
Payton Pritchard 31 10 7 3
Torrey Craig 9 6 0 1
Al Horford S 34 6 10 3
Luke Kornet 16 2 4 1
Baylor Scheierman 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 16-foot jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
6%
9 Chris Paul SA
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 6.0 6.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.3 6.2 5.4
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.9 11.4 3.8
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.8 4.1 6.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 6.9 3.1
6 Stephon Castle SA 19.2 4.3 3.8
7 Derrick White BOS 17.0 3.9 5.0
8 Devin Vassell SA 15.3 3.4 2.5
9 Harrison Barnes SA 13.2 5.2 1.9
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.9 4.6 4.0
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.4 4.3 2.5
12 Chris Paul SA 9.2 3.2 6.4
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.1 5.4 2.4
14 Keldon Johnson SA 8.4 2.8 1.2
15 Sam Hauser BOS 8.0 2.8 1.2
16 Al Horford BOS 7.2 5.5 1.4
17 Luke Kornet BOS 6.6 5.2 1.7
18 Torrey Craig BOS 5.8 2.4 0.8
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.8 3.3 0.9
20 Julian Champagnie SA 5.1 2.4 1.1
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.7 1.8 0.8
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.8 1.8 0.9
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.0 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.2 1.1 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.5 0.5 0.5
26 Malaki Branham SA 1.5 0.4 0.3
27 Blake Wesley SA 1.2 0.6 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.