NBA games

UTAH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
113–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25222838113
LAL37352832132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home LAL
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 29 17 3 1
John Collins S 36 17 11 0
Jordan Clarkson S 29 16 1 4
Johnny Juzang 18 14 4 2
Isaiah Collier S 33 13 4 10
Walker Kessler S 34 13 12 2
Keyonte George 32 11 2 8
Kyle Filipowski 10 9 1 0
Micah Potter 5 2 0 0
Brice Sensabaugh 12 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 29 24 7 8
Austin Reaves S 32 22 9 4
Rui Hachimura S 29 21 6 0
Jordan Goodwin 22 17 8 1
Luka Doncic S 24 14 5 4
Jaxson Hayes S 23 12 2 2
Gabe Vincent 18 11 0 4
Dorian Finney-Smith 26 4 4 1
Markieff Morris 6 3 0 2
Trey Jemison III 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop dunk shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
3 LeBron James LAL
8%
4 John Collins UTAH
8%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
7%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
7%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
6%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
6%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
8%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.3 8.8 10.3
2 Luka Doncic LAL 27.4 8.5 8.2
3 Austin Reaves LAL 23.9 4.7 6.9
4 John Collins UTAH 18.3 7.7 1.9
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.0 3.3 3.6
6 Keyonte George UTAH 16.8 4.0 5.9
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.6 5.8 1.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.9 5.2 1.9
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.2 4.1 8.0
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.9 11.5 1.7
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.0 3.3 2.1
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 10.4 1.9 2.7
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.6 2.8 1.9
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.1 3.4 1.2
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.4 2.2 0.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.9 5.3 1.5
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.5 4.3 1.8
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.1 2.4 1.6
19 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 5.7 2.0 1.0
20 Micah Potter UTAH 5.5 3.3 0.8
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.9 5.5 1.3
22 Shake Milton LAL 4.0 1.7 1.8
23 Markieff Morris LAL 3.3 1.4 0.8
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.1 1.8 0.7
25 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.1 4.3 0.5
26 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.1 3.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.