NBA games

MEM @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM36322724119
PHX26303125112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHX
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 33 26 7 6
Desmond Bane S 35 20 8 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 17 6 1
Brandon Clarke 19 14 7 2
Santi Aldama 23 14 5 1
Jaylen Wells S 19 8 4 1
Vince Williams Jr. 17 7 9 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 12 6 1 2
Zach Edey S 20 4 9 0
GG Jackson 13 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 43 34 3 3
Bol Bol S 30 18 14 2
Devin Booker S 40 17 2 9
Royce O'Neale 34 11 6 4
Tyus Jones S 32 11 3 9
Grayson Allen 20 9 0 3
Nick Richards S 16 6 4 1
Mason Plumlee 7 4 6 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 13 2 3 3
Ryan Dunn 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Ja Morant makes alley oop layup (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Ja Morant MEM
9%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
5 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
6 Nick Richards PHX
8%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.0 4.4 7.0
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.3 5.3 3.1
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.3 5.0 4.1
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.5 6.1 6.7
5 Ja Morant MEM 20.3 4.3 7.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 12.3 5.7 1.9
7 Tyus Jones PHX 11.3 2.5 4.9
8 Luke Kennard MEM 11.2 2.7 3.6
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 4.1 2.5
10 Zach Edey MEM 9.7 8.4 1.3
11 Nick Richards PHX 9.2 9.4 1.1
12 GG Jackson MEM 8.9 3.5 1.2
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.9 3.3 1.9
14 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.7 2.6 1.8
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.3 5.2 1.2
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.9 3.4 3.3
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.4 2.8 2.1
18 Bol Bol PHX 4.7 2.4 0.7
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 6.1 1.7
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.5 1.4 1.4
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.4 2.5 1.1
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.8 1.2 0.7
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.5 1.3 0.9
24 John Konchar MEM 3.3 3.5 0.9
25 Jay Huff MEM 3.2 1.4 0.6
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.1 2.2 1.0
27 Monte Morris PHX 3.1 1.1 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.