NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
13292
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET34373427132
CHI1811303392

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 16 24 2 0
Cade Cunningham S 27 20 6 7
Tobias Harris S 25 18 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 22 16 3 4
Isaiah Stewart 15 14 6 3
Marcus Sasser 11 14 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 26 8 10 1
Paul Reed 10 5 6 1
Dennis Schroder 15 4 2 4
Jalen Duren S 23 4 11 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 19 12 1 1
Josh Giddey S 23 11 6 4
Tre Jones 16 8 2 1
Nikola Vucevic S 25 8 7 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 20 8 1 2
Julian Phillips 13 7 1 0
Dalen Terry 14 6 3 0
Coby White S 28 5 3 2
Zach Collins 12 5 5 0
Patrick Williams 20 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 14-foot jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.5 6.1 10.6
2 Coby White CHI 21.1 3.3 4.9
3 Josh Giddey CHI 18.3 6.7 6.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.5 9.6 4.1
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.1 11.7 3.4
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.1 2.2
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.8 2.7 4.5
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.7 5.3 1.9
9 Ausar Thompson DET 11.8 5.9 2.6
10 Dennis Schroder DET 11.0 2.7 4.3
11 Matas Buzelis CHI 10.5 4.1 1.3
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.5 4.7 2.0
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.6 3.1 1.9
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.2 5.7 1.0
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 4.9 1.2
16 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.5 1.3
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.7 2.8 1.1
18 Tre Jones CHI 5.6 1.6 3.0
19 Marcus Sasser DET 5.3 1.4 2.9
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 1.6 1.3
21 Lindy Waters III DET 4.0 2.0 0.7
22 Kevin Huerter CHI 3.7 1.4 1.1
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.6 1.1 0.9
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.3 1.6 0.7
25 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.1 0.8 0.7
26 Paul Reed DET 2.7 2.7 0.6
27 Zach Collins CHI 1.8 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.