NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
128–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27413030128
IND26342827115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 40 12 5
Josh Hart S 40 30 10 5
Miles McBride 25 15 3 1
Landry Shamet 19 11 1 4
Cameron Payne 24 9 1 8
Precious Achiuwa S 33 9 12 2
Jalen Brunson S 23 8 2 7
Mikal Bridges S 29 6 5 5
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 0
Matt Ryan 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 24 5 1
Thomas Bryant S 32 18 9 4
Bennedict Mathurin 31 18 3 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 16 5 8
Ben Sheppard 14 12 0 0
Obi Toppin 21 9 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 30 8 1 2
T.J. McConnell 17 7 1 6
Jarace Walker 9 3 3 1
Aaron Nesmith S 13 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
23%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.8 3.0 7.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.4 7.4 4.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.7 11.5 3.8
4 Mikal Bridges NY 19.7 3.7 4.3
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.4 4.0 7.0
6 Josh Hart NY 17.1 10.4 6.0
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.3 2.6
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.3 4.4 1.7
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.8 3.5 5.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.3 6.6 1.6
11 Miles McBride NY 8.9 2.1 1.8
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.1 3.7 1.2
13 Thomas Bryant IND 7.9 4.6 1.6
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 3.2 4.1
15 Cameron Payne NY 7.0 1.8 2.0
16 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.0 3.0 1.4
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.8 2.7 1.7
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.2 3.4 1.3
19 Delon Wright NY 4.0 2.0 1.7
20 Landry Shamet NY 3.5 1.4 0.7
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.6 0.7
22 Johnny Furphy IND 1.5 0.8 0.3
23 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.9 0.4
24 Matt Ryan NY 1.4 0.7 0.3
25 Tyler Kolek NY 1.3 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.