NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26243422106
PHI18342922103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 33 10 3
Immanuel Quickley S 34 23 3 5
Gradey Dick S 33 17 4 0
Ochai Agbaji S 27 11 4 1
Jamal Shead 17 6 3 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 20 5 5 1
Jonathan Mogbo S 21 4 5 5
Orlando Robinson 15 4 4 2
Jamison Battle 9 3 1 0
Chris Boucher 15 0 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 38 27 12 4
Jared Butler 16 15 4 4
Paul George S 36 14 3 2
Quentin Grimes 36 13 7 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 12 7 3
Justin Edwards S 16 9 2 0
Guerschon Yabusele 22 8 6 2
Tyrese Maxey S 34 5 5 3
Ricky Council IV 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Mogbo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Jonathan Mogbo makes dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.7 9.1 5.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.2 3.6 8.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.2 6.0
4 Paul George PHI 19.4 4.9 4.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.2 8.9 3.0
6 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 16.7 6.4 2.7
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.6 3.3 5.5
8 Gradey Dick TOR 12.6 3.7 1.5
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.6 3.3 2.5
10 Jared Butler PHI 10.2 2.7 2.8
11 Justin Edwards PHI 9.8 3.8 1.9
12 Jamal Shead TOR 9.0 2.1 3.9
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.8 4.0 1.3
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.8 2.7 1.6
15 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 4.0 0.8
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.6 2.2 1.7
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.7 5.6 0.9
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.4 3.3 1.1
19 Orlando Robinson TOR 4.3 3.4 0.8
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.2 4.0 0.6
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 1.5 0.9
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.6 1.4 1.4
23 Chuma Okeke PHI 2.1 0.8 0.5
24 Ulrich Chomche TOR 1.5 1.1 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.