NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
117–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27283725117
DEN38324234146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 28 22 1 6
Donovan Clingan 21 21 7 0
Anfernee Simons S 32 17 0 4
Deni Avdija S 34 16 6 8
Shaedon Sharpe 20 11 3 1
Deandre Ayton S 19 10 0 0
Scoot Henderson S 25 6 2 3
Toumani Camara S 31 6 6 2
Jabari Walker 15 5 5 1
Duop Reath 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 31 40 7 8
Christian Braun S 37 26 6 2
Julian Strawther S 35 18 4 3
Jamal Murray S 29 17 2 8
Jalen Pickett 29 14 3 9
Zeke Nnaji 19 11 5 3
Aaron Gordon S 24 9 2 7
DeAndre Jordan 13 5 2 2
Trey Alexander 4 4 4 0
PJ Hall 4 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes alley oop layup (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
7 Jerami Grant POR
10%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.9 10.2 9.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 4.2 6.3
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.5 3.4 5.6
4 Deandre Ayton POR 18.6 11.3 2.7
5 Christian Braun DEN 18.4 6.1 3.1
6 Deni Avdija POR 18.1 5.6 4.1
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.4 3.7 1.8
8 Jerami Grant POR 14.3 3.4 2.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.4 7.4 2.2
10 Scoot Henderson POR 13.4 3.2 5.6
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.5 3.5 3.6
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.5 2.5 1.3
13 Dalano Banton POR 6.9 1.9 1.1
14 Robert Williams III POR 4.8 6.2 0.9
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 4.8 0.7
16 Donovan Clingan POR 4.3 6.9 1.1
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 2.9 0.6
18 Dario Saric DEN 3.7 2.8 1.4
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.3 1.9
20 Kris Murray POR 3.4 1.7 0.7
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.5 0.5
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 2.6 0.4
23 Spencer Jones DEN 2.2 1.0 0.5
24 PJ Hall DEN 2.2 1.4 0.5
25 Trey Alexander DEN 2.2 0.9 0.7
26 Duop Reath POR 2.1 0.9 0.4
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.