NBA games

SAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
129–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC2734262913129
DAL3526322312128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DAL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 42 7 3
Zach LaVine S 38 17 4 4
Malik Monk S 43 17 3 8
Domantas Sabonis S 42 16 15 8
Jonas Valanciunas 18 13 8 0
Keegan Murray S 30 11 5 3
Keon Ellis 32 8 6 1
Trey Lyles 10 3 1 0
Jake LaRavia 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 44 30 9 7
Spencer Dinwiddie 34 20 2 5
Klay Thompson S 26 19 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 34 16 4 1
Max Christie 35 15 4 3
Naji Marshall 27 9 6 5
Kessler Edwards S 26 6 1 1
Dante Exum S 19 5 2 6
Daniel Gafford S 10 4 3 2
Jaden Hardy 9 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 2-foot two point shot (Malik Monk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine SAC
16%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
14%
5 Malik Monk SAC
13%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
9 Daishen Nix SAC
0%
10 Mason Jones SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.2 4.8 5.6
2 Zach LaVine SAC 24.0 4.2 5.0
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.2 4.4 3.5
4 Malik Monk SAC 21.5 4.7 7.1
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.4 13.3 7.0
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 21.0 10.5 2.5
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 6.2 1.7
8 Klay Thompson DAL 13.1 4.0 2.6
9 Naji Marshall DAL 13.1 4.2 3.4
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.9 2.7 3.8
11 Max Christie DAL 12.5 4.5 2.4
12 Dante Exum DAL 9.7 2.1 3.1
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 9.6 7.1 2.0
14 Keon Ellis SAC 9.0 3.0 2.0
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.5 1.4
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.0 3.0 1.3
17 Trey Lyles SAC 5.9 3.7 1.1
18 Jake LaRavia SAC 5.5 3.8 1.2
19 Kessler Edwards DAL 4.6 3.4 1.2
20 Daishen Nix SAC 4.5 1.5 1.2
21 Kylor Kelley DAL 3.8 3.2 0.4
22 Mason Jones SAC 3.1 1.7 1.1
23 Brandon Williams DAL 3.0 0.9 1.2
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.9 1.6 0.5
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.6 0.4
26 Isaac Jones SAC 2.6 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.