NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO20302823101
OKC33393035137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 34 23 7 5
Zion Williamson S 26 17 2 5
Jordan Hawkins 26 12 5 3
Yves Missi S 30 11 8 2
Jose Alvarado S 23 9 0 0
Karlo Matkovic S 32 8 9 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 17 8 4 0
Javonte Green 12 5 2 0
Keion Brooks Jr. 7 4 3 1
Antonio Reeves 25 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 31 1 2
Aaron Wiggins 25 24 2 0
Jalen Williams S 25 16 5 5
Chet Holmgren S 25 12 6 0
Alex Caruso 18 12 2 5
Kenrich Williams 11 11 0 4
Dillon Jones 18 8 1 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 6 13 2
Luguentz Dort S 25 6 3 2
Adam Flagler 6 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Yves Missi · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Yves Missi makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Zion Williamson NO
10%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
4 CJ McCollum NO
9%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
9 Yves Missi NO
7%
10 Alex Caruso OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 34.4 4.2 7.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.8 7.8 5.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.7 5.0 5.8
4 Trey Murphy III NO 24.2 5.2 4.8
5 CJ McCollum NO 23.4 4.5 4.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.3 4.8 2.2
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 8.1 2.0
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.3 10.4 4.1
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 3.6 1.9
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.6 2.5 1.3
11 Jose Alvarado NO 8.5 2.4 4.5
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.8 7.2 2.7
13 Yves Missi NO 7.7 7.4 1.2
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.5 3.0 2.6
15 Javonte Green NO 6.0 3.6 1.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.8 4.4 1.6
17 Branden Carlson OKC 4.7 2.0 0.7
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.5 3.9 0.9
19 Antonio Reeves NO 3.5 1.3 0.9
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 2.5 1.3
21 Jamal Cain NO 3.0 1.6 0.5
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.9 3.6 1.0
23 Alex Ducas OKC 2.7 1.5 0.6
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.6 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.