GS @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
125–111
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 29 | 29 | 31 | 36 | 125 |
| MIL | 27 | 24 | 32 | 28 | 111 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS
away
home
MIL
73%
27%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry S | 34 | 38 | 6 | 4 |
| Jimmy Butler III S | 31 | 20 | 9 | 6 |
| Buddy Hield S | 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 |
| Quinten Post | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| Moses Moody S | 33 | 13 | 3 | 1 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 32 | 9 | 9 | 3 |
| Draymond Green S | 32 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| Gary Payton II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Kevon Looney | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Jackson Rowe | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Taurean Prince ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Stephen Curry
GS
16%
2
Damian Lillard
MIL
13%
3
Jimmy Butler III
GS
13%
4
Kyle Kuzma
MIL
11%
5
Brook Lopez
MIL
9%
6
Buddy Hield
GS
8%
7
Draymond Green
GS
8%
8
Andre Jackson Jr.
MIL
7%
9
Taurean Prince
MIL
7%
10
Quinten Post
GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 26.8 | 5.7 | 8.6 |
| 2 | Stephen Curry | GS | 23.1 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | 17.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | Jimmy Butler III | GS | 15.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 14.8 | 9.2 | 2.4 |
| 6 | Brandin Podziemski | GS | 13.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 7 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Moses Moody | GS | 11.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 9 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 11.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Buddy Hield | GS | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 11 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 10.0 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Draymond Green | GS | 9.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| 13 | Quinten Post | GS | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 14 | Kevin Porter Jr. | MIL | 8.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 15 | AJ Green | MIL | 7.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Gui Santos | GS | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 17 | Gary Payton II | GS | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 19 | Kevon Looney | GS | 5.7 | 6.6 | 2.0 |
| 20 | Trayce Jackson-Davis | GS | 5.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| 21 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 22 | Pat Spencer | GS | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 23 | Jackson Rowe | GS | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 24 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 25 | Tyler Smith | MIL | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 26 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 27 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.