NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–85
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS18343615103
MIA2419222085

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 33 8 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 17 9 2
Al Horford S 33 16 10 0
Sam Hauser S 24 15 4 2
Derrick White S 38 13 4 7
Payton Pritchard 36 5 10 8
Neemias Queta 6 4 1 0
Luke Kornet 22 0 3 2
Baylor Scheierman 10 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 22 12 4
Alec Burks S 26 13 7 0
Andrew Wiggins S 30 11 5 5
Nikola Jovic 27 10 8 0
Terry Rozier 25 9 3 1
Kel'el Ware S 27 8 7 2
Duncan Robinson 23 5 2 5
Davion Mitchell S 23 4 3 4
Pelle Larsson 15 3 1 0
Kyle Anderson 10 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
8 Luke Kornet BOS
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
18%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.6 5.7 6.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.3 6.0 5.2
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.8 4.9 7.2
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 20.1 5.3 3.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.0 10.4 4.3
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.4 6.4 2.8
7 Derrick White BOS 16.1 3.9 4.1
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 15.3 4.0 4.4
9 Terry Rozier MIA 14.4 4.2 3.0
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.1 9.7 1.5
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.8 2.8 2.2
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.7 3.9 3.9
13 Jrue Holiday BOS 8.8 4.3 2.4
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 8.2 1.7 4.7
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.1 4.2 2.3
16 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 2.7 1.1
17 Al Horford BOS 6.4 4.9 1.4
18 Luke Kornet BOS 6.4 5.1 1.6
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 3.0 0.8
20 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.4 2.6 1.5
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.4 2.5 1.1
22 Alec Burks MIA 4.0 1.6 0.8
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.5 2.1 0.7
24 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.0 1.3 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.3 0.7
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.7 0.7
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.