NBA games

SA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
131–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA40263431131
WSH30333325121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home WSH
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 38 31 15 4
De'Aaron Fox S 36 30 4 6
Stephon Castle 20 16 1 2
Jeremy Sochan 21 14 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 27 12 5 0
Chris Paul S 33 8 5 9
Devin Vassell S 31 7 3 1
Julian Champagnie 16 6 0 1
Keldon Johnson 11 4 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 7 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 20 18 6 2
Richaun Holmes S 27 17 4 0
Jordan Poole S 32 16 6 4
Corey Kispert 24 14 2 2
Justin Champagnie 18 14 5 1
Malcolm Brogdon 19 11 5 5
Kyshawn George S 36 11 7 3
Bub Carrington S 28 10 4 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 10 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
43%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.2 10.7 3.9
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.9 4.4 6.5
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.4 4.2 7.4
4 Stephon Castle SA 18.6 4.4 4.0
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.0 3.7 3.0
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.0 5.2 4.1
7 Harrison Barnes SA 14.3 5.3 2.1
8 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 12.6 3.6 5.2
9 Corey Kispert WSH 12.4 3.5 1.9
10 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 2.8 4.1
11 Kyshawn George WSH 10.4 3.9 2.3
12 Chris Paul SA 9.6 3.3 6.9
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.0 5.5 2.4
14 Keldon Johnson SA 8.9 3.1 1.2
15 Jaylen Nowell WSH 7.7 2.6 2.0
16 Richaun Holmes WSH 6.9 6.8 1.6
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.7 3.2 1.0
18 Julian Champagnie SA 5.5 2.7 1.3
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.4 2.4 1.1
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 1.4 0.7
21 Jaylen Martin WSH 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 AJ Johnson WSH 3.7 1.4 1.2
23 Colby Jones WSH 2.2 1.5 0.5
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.0 0.6 0.4
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.9 0.6 0.6
26 Blake Wesley SA 1.7 0.8 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.