NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
112–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25253329112
ORL22352524106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 19 5 8
Caris LeVert 32 18 8 2
Terance Mann 15 12 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 18 11 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 33 10 6 4
Mouhamed Gueye S 15 9 1 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 9 7 2
Vit Krejci 18 8 1 4
Larry Nance Jr. 19 8 3 1
Georges Niang 24 8 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 37 7 3
Paolo Banchero S 33 31 6 4
Tristan da Silva 16 9 2 0
Cole Anthony S 18 7 1 4
Anthony Black 34 6 6 5
Jonathan Isaac 18 6 4 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 6 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 18 4 2 1
Goga Bitadze S 17 0 3 0
Gary Harris 14 0 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mouhamed Gueye · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Mouhamed Gueye makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
6 Cole Anthony ORL
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
39%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.3 5.7 4.2
2 Trae Young ATL 24.6 2.7 10.9
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.9 7.3 5.9
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.6 7.2 5.9
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.0 8.8 3.1
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.1 4.0 3.3
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.0 3.6 1.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.6 6.8 3.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.7 2.6 2.6
10 Vit Krejci ATL 10.5 3.9 2.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.6 2.7 1.5
12 Georges Niang ATL 9.4 3.5 1.2
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.9 3.5 1.9
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.7 1.9 2.6
15 Caris LeVert ATL 7.5 3.0 2.8
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.2 4.2 1.4
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.8 7.0 1.4
18 Terance Mann ATL 5.9 2.8 1.6
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.3 3.9 0.8
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.2 2.4 1.3
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.2 4.9 0.8
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.9 2.2 0.7
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.5 1.8 0.9
24 Gary Harris ORL 4.5 1.5 0.9
25 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.5 0.9
26 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.7 2.3 0.5
27 Cory Joseph ORL 2.8 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.