NBA games

MIN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
107–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN12323429107
CLE30363824128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CLE
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 44 6 1
Rob Dillingham 23 13 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 27 12 8 1
Jaden McDaniels S 32 10 3 1
Naz Reid S 35 10 6 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 26 6 6 2
Leonard Miller 5 4 1 0
Jaylen Clark 15 4 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 2 2 1
Josh Minott 5 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 32 28 10 6
Donovan Mitchell S 32 23 3 8
Darius Garland S 27 17 1 3
Ty Jerome 24 15 2 4
Jarrett Allen S 27 14 13 3
De'Andre Hunter S 23 12 1 0
Sam Merrill 29 9 6 0
Jaylon Tyson 14 5 5 1
Emoni Bates 5 3 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 17 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 9:49 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Rob Dillingham MIN
7%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
30%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.4 5.2 5.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.9 4.1 6.0
3 Darius Garland CLE 24.3 3.3 6.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.1 9.3 2.7
5 Naz Reid MIN 17.5 5.8 2.9
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.1 3.9 2.1
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.9 7.7 2.8
8 Ty Jerome CLE 16.3 3.6 3.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.9 10.7 2.1
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.3 10.9 2.4
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.8 3.6 2.7
12 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.3 1.9 3.6
13 Sam Merrill CLE 7.0 2.1 1.2
14 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.7 2.0 0.7
15 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.0 3.1 1.3
16 Luka Garza MIN 3.8 2.0 0.6
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.4 1.0
18 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.3 1.3
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.0 1.1 0.7
20 Leonard Miller MIN 2.7 2.2 0.3
21 Luke Travers CLE 2.7 1.9 0.9
22 Tristen Newton MIN 2.2 0.7 1.2
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.9 3.2 1.1
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 1.1 0.3
25 Emoni Bates CLE 1.7 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.