PHI @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
127–135
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 39 | 24 | 28 | 36 | 127 |
| MIL | 40 | 25 | 38 | 32 | 135 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI
away
home
MIL
48%
52%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey S | 40 | 39 | 4 | 5 |
| Joel Embiid S | 30 | 27 | 12 | 6 |
| Guerschon Yabusele | 25 | 18 | 2 | 1 |
| Paul George S | 29 | 12 | 5 | 6 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. S | 37 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Quentin Grimes | 31 | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Jared Butler | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Justin Edwards S | 22 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Eric Gordon | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Lowry | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Damian Lillard ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Damian Lillard
MIL
15%
2
Guerschon Yabusele
PHI
11%
3
Kelly Oubre Jr.
PHI
11%
4
Tyrese Maxey
PHI
10%
5
Joel Embiid
PHI
9%
6
Bobby Portis
MIL
8%
7
Paul George
PHI
8%
8
Brook Lopez
MIL
8%
9
Taurean Prince
MIL
7%
10
Justin Edwards
PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
24%
Layup
10%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI | 31.0 | 3.5 | 8.1 |
| 2 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 26.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 25.9 | 5.5 | 8.8 |
| 4 | Paul George | PHI | 19.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| 5 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | 17.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 |
| 6 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | PHI | 17.0 | 8.6 | 3.2 |
| 7 | Guerschon Yabusele | PHI | 16.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| 8 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 13.5 | 9.2 | 2.3 |
| 9 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 12.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 11.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 11 | Quentin Grimes | PHI | 10.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 12 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 10.2 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| 13 | Justin Edwards | PHI | 9.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| 14 | Eric Gordon | PHI | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| 15 | Kevin Porter Jr. | MIL | 8.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 16 | Ricky Council IV | PHI | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| 17 | Jared Butler | PHI | 7.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 18 | AJ Green | MIL | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 19 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 20 | Andre Drummond | PHI | 6.1 | 5.9 | 1.0 |
| 21 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 22 | Kyle Lowry | PHI | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 23 | Adem Bona | PHI | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Tyler Smith | MIL | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Chuma Okeke | PHI | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 26 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 27 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 28 | Stanley Umude | MIL | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.