NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
127135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI39242836127
MIL40253832135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 39 4 5
Joel Embiid S 30 27 12 6
Guerschon Yabusele 25 18 2 1
Paul George S 29 12 5 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 10 5 1
Quentin Grimes 31 10 7 5
Jared Butler 11 7 2 1
Justin Edwards S 22 4 4 1
Eric Gordon 9 0 0 1
Kyle Lowry 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 44 43 7 8
Gary Trent Jr. 33 23 6 3
Bobby Portis 30 18 13 5
Brook Lopez S 24 15 8 0
Kyle Kuzma S 36 13 8 5
AJ Green 25 11 4 2
Taurean Prince S 28 10 4 2
Ryan Rollins 4 2 1 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 16 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
6 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
24%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 31.0 3.5 8.1
2 Joel Embiid PHI 26.8 8.1 5.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.9 5.5 8.8
4 Paul George PHI 19.5 4.9 4.8
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.3 7.0 2.9
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.0 8.6 3.2
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 16.2 6.6 3.2
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.5 9.2 2.3
9 Brook Lopez MIL 12.2 4.5 2.1
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.3 2.8 1.9
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.8 3.1 2.3
12 Taurean Prince MIL 10.2 3.5 2.6
13 Justin Edwards PHI 9.8 3.8 2.0
14 Eric Gordon PHI 9.7 2.3 2.9
15 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.4 3.6 2.7
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.1 2.7 2.0
17 Jared Butler PHI 7.7 2.1 2.4
18 AJ Green MIL 6.8 2.9 1.3
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.4 3.7 1.8
20 Andre Drummond PHI 6.1 5.9 1.0
21 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.6 1.6 1.6
22 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.3 2.5 2.5
23 Adem Bona PHI 4.8 4.6 0.7
24 Tyler Smith MIL 3.8 1.8 0.8
25 Chuma Okeke PHI 2.7 1.2 0.6
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.8 0.6
27 Jericho Sims MIL 1.9 2.3 0.5
28 Stanley Umude MIL 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.