NBA games

TOR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
87–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2220212487
HOU1819213694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home HOU
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 30 20 8 3
Scottie Barnes S 38 15 9 7
Jamal Shead 19 14 0 2
Ochai Agbaji S 32 11 5 2
Jonathan Mogbo S 31 10 6 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 25 10 3 0
Chris Boucher 18 4 7 2
Orlando Robinson 17 3 9 0
Jamison Battle 14 0 0 0
Gradey Dick S 14 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 37 19 7 2
Jalen Green S 34 18 9 3
Jeff Green 20 14 5 1
Jock Landale 24 11 10 1
Cam Whitmore 25 11 6 1
Amen Thompson S 41 8 10 5
Aaron Holiday S 27 6 4 3
Jae'Sean Tate 15 5 4 0
Reed Sheppard 14 2 0 1
Alperen Sengun S 3 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
19%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.8 4.2 4.7
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.0 5.9
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 10.4 4.8
4 Amen Thompson HOU 19.8 9.3 6.0
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.4 2.8 6.0
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.6 3.9 1.5
7 Gradey Dick TOR 13.6 3.7 1.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.1 5.9 1.7
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.9 2.9 4.7
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.7 8.6 3.1
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.1 6.2 1.7
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.0 3.5 1.3
13 Chris Boucher TOR 8.9 3.9 0.7
14 Jamal Shead TOR 8.2 1.9 3.7
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.8 3.3 1.1
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.4 2.3 1.4
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.5 7.5 1.2
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.4 3.0 1.0
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.6 1.2
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.6 1.9 1.0
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.7 0.9
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.9 2.4 0.9
23 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.8 2.7 0.9
24 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.5 0.8
25 Jeff Green HOU 3.4 1.2 0.4
26 Nate Williams HOU 2.2 0.6 0.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.