NBA games

CHA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
102–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA15312729102
DET39272422112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DET
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 30 9 3
Seth Curry S 36 26 4 2
Isaiah Wong 24 17 2 1
KJ Simpson S 32 10 4 6
Tidjane Salaun 31 8 7 4
Taj Gibson 20 6 6 3
Moussa Diabate S 7 5 1 0
Elfrid Payton 23 0 1 4
DaQuan Jeffries S 30 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 34 20 4 1
Cade Cunningham S 37 19 10 12
Malik Beasley 26 17 2 0
Jalen Duren S 31 16 12 6
Ausar Thompson S 23 16 8 4
Ronald Holland II 14 9 2 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 8 2 1
Dennis Schroder 15 5 0 3
Isaiah Stewart 17 2 3 1
Simone Fontecchio 14 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 7-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
13%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
7%
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
7%
10 Malik Beasley DET
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.4 5.9 10.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.8 8.0 4.4
3 Malik Beasley DET 16.0 3.0 2.2
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.6 11.4 2.8
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.1 3.4 3.4
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.2 5.1 1.9
7 Dennis Schroder DET 11.6 2.8 3.9
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.6 6.0 2.1
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.5 3.0 1.8
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.0 8.5 1.7
11 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.8 7.4 2.7
12 KJ Simpson CHA 8.6 3.0 2.3
13 Elfrid Payton CHA 6.9 3.5 5.5
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.3 1.7 2.9
15 Seth Curry CHA 5.9 1.7 1.1
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 5.0 1.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.8 3.7 1.1
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.4 1.2
19 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.7 2.7 1.0
20 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.1 2.8 1.4
21 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.3 1.2 0.9
22 Lindy Waters III DET 3.8 2.1 0.7
23 Paul Reed DET 3.4 3.0 0.8
24 Taj Gibson CHA 3.1 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.