NBA games

NO @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
118123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO31342231118
SAC24304524123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SAC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 40 4 4
CJ McCollum S 33 31 6 3
Trey Murphy III S 38 20 6 7
Brandon Boston 15 11 2 0
Karlo Matkovic 17 6 2 0
Jose Alvarado S 29 5 3 9
Antonio Reeves 14 3 1 2
Yves Missi S 32 2 13 1
Jordan Hawkins 18 0 0 0
Javonte Green 16 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 34 27 16 2
Zach LaVine S 37 22 4 5
Keegan Murray S 36 19 8 0
Keon Ellis 32 13 4 2
Malik Monk S 32 13 4 7
DeMar DeRozan S 32 11 6 4
Jake LaRavia 12 7 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 14 6 5 1
Trey Lyles 10 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 CJ McCollum NO
12%
3 Malik Monk SAC
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
7 Yves Missi NO
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Karlo Matkovic NO
8%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
21%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.7 8.6 5.3
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.7 5.6 4.7
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.5 4.5 5.2
4 CJ McCollum NO 23.1 4.3 4.1
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.8 4.4 3.1
6 Malik Monk SAC 22.7 4.5 6.9
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.2 13.2 7.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.5 5.9 1.8
9 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 11.5 7.8 2.3
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.5 2.4 1.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.3 3.1 1.9
12 Yves Missi NO 8.6 7.0 1.4
13 Jose Alvarado NO 8.0 2.1 4.0
14 Brandon Boston NO 6.7 2.6 1.0
15 Javonte Green NO 6.4 4.1 1.3
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.1 4.0 1.1
17 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.7 3.4 1.2
18 Daishen Nix SAC 4.6 1.5 1.3
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.0 3.9 0.9
20 Devin Carter SAC 3.7 1.7 1.1
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.6 3.9 1.2
22 Mason Jones SAC 3.5 1.9 1.3
23 Antonio Reeves NO 3.2 1.1 0.9
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.8 1.6 0.5
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.8 0.7 0.5
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.