NBA games

DEN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
122–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN37263524122
PHX32232624105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHX
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 30 3 5
Nikola Jokic S 29 26 11 9
Julian Strawther S 39 18 6 0
Christian Braun S 38 18 7 6
Aaron Gordon S 24 9 10 4
Jalen Pickett 17 6 1 1
Hunter Tyson 7 5 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 21 4 5 1
DeAndre Jordan 17 4 11 1
PJ Hall 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 24 7 3
Bol Bol 33 19 7 1
Tyus Jones S 29 15 3 10
Damion Lee 16 11 0 0
Royce O'Neale S 30 9 2 2
Ryan Dunn S 13 8 2 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 21 7 4 2
Collin Gillespie 5 5 1 1
Nick Richards S 22 5 9 0
Mason Plumlee 16 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Christian Braun DEN
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
5 Nick Richards PHX
11%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
10%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
9 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
16%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 10.6 10.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 28.4 4.2 7.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.4 4.4 6.3
4 Christian Braun DEN 18.1 5.9 3.0
5 Tyus Jones PHX 11.2 2.4 4.4
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.1 3.3 3.4
7 Nick Richards PHX 9.6 9.6 1.2
8 Julian Strawther DEN 8.7 2.5 1.5
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.4 3.7 1.9
10 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.2 3.4 1.2
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 5.2 1.8 1.8
12 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.8 5.7 1.6
13 Bol Bol PHX 4.7 2.3 0.8
14 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.9 0.8
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.1 2.5 1.0
16 Dario Saric DEN 4.0 2.9 1.5
17 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.0 1.3 0.9
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 2.8 0.6
19 Monte Morris PHX 3.8 1.6 1.4
20 Damion Lee PHX 3.7 1.5 0.7
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 1.3 1.4
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.7 0.6
23 Spencer Jones DEN 2.4 1.1 0.5
24 PJ Hall DEN 2.4 1.7 0.5
25 Trey Alexander DEN 2.4 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.