NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
131–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30313535131
NY19292828104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 40 6 4
Payton Pritchard 27 25 4 4
Derrick White S 25 17 3 4
Luke Kornet S 29 14 12 1
Jaylen Brown S 32 12 3 5
Neemias Queta 26 11 8 0
Sam Hauser 18 5 3 0
Al Horford S 31 5 8 1
Jordan Walsh 5 2 0 0
Baylor Scheierman 5 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 36 0 5
Josh Hart S 38 17 8 3
Cameron Payne 19 14 1 1
Mikal Bridges S 34 11 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 9 9 1
Miles McBride 35 8 1 1
Landry Shamet 5 6 0 1
Precious Achiuwa S 33 3 4 2
Delon Wright 3 0 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 8 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
15%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.5 3.2 7.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.6 6.2 6.6
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 6.1 4.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.0 11.7 3.9
5 Mikal Bridges NY 20.6 3.6 4.0
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.7 6.3 2.7
7 Derrick White BOS 16.1 4.2 3.8
8 Josh Hart NY 15.6 10.2 6.0
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.7 4.0 3.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.5 6.7 1.4
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.1 4.4 2.5
12 Miles McBride NY 7.8 2.0 1.5
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.9 2.5 1.1
14 Al Horford BOS 6.3 4.4 1.2
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.3 1.6
16 Cameron Payne NY 5.1 1.3 1.7
17 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 2.2 0.8
18 Delon Wright NY 2.9 1.7 1.3
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.2 0.6
20 Landry Shamet NY 2.3 0.9 0.3
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 1.9 0.4
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.3 1.0 0.4
23 Matt Ryan NY 1.3 0.7 0.2
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.2 0.7 0.3
25 Tyler Kolek NY 1.2 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.