NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
98–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2238241498
MIN24232938114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 34 21 3 5
Jerami Grant S 38 14 2 1
Shaedon Sharpe 27 14 3 3
Scoot Henderson 26 12 1 3
Kris Murray 12 9 3 0
Deni Avdija S 23 8 3 4
Toumani Camara S 34 8 7 0
Robert Williams III 8 6 4 0
Deandre Ayton S 32 6 14 2
Donovan Clingan 6 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 37 30 10 4
Naz Reid S 38 23 8 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 38 21 5 6
Rudy Gobert S 37 15 11 1
Jaylen Clark 32 11 3 0
Rob Dillingham S 24 8 0 6
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 4 0 1
Joe Ingles 13 2 2 1
Luka Garza 8 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naz Reid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Naz Reid makes driving layup (Rob Dillingham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
16%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
5 Deni Avdija POR
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
7 Naz Reid MIN
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
33%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 19.9 3.3 5.2
2 Deni Avdija POR 17.9 5.9 3.9
3 Deandre Ayton POR 17.2 10.2 2.1
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.9 5.2 2.8
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.9 7.8 2.5
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.7 3.8 1.7
7 Jerami Grant POR 13.5 3.2 1.9
8 Scoot Henderson POR 13.2 3.2 5.5
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 10.4 2.2
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.2 7.2 2.1
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.2 2.9 5.6
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.6 3.4 2.3
13 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.8 1.9 3.3
14 Dalano Banton POR 6.9 1.9 1.0
15 Donovan Clingan POR 5.0 7.0 1.0
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.5 1.5 0.7
17 Robert Williams III POR 3.7 5.8 0.8
18 Kris Murray POR 3.5 1.6 0.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.3 1.5 0.5
20 Jabari Walker POR 3.1 2.7 0.5
21 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 2.2 0.5
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 0.9 0.6
23 Duop Reath POR 2.2 1.0 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.7 1.2
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.