NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
125–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34353521125
MEM26263129112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 32 0 8
Aaron Wiggins S 38 26 11 2
Jalen Williams S 37 25 6 6
Alex Caruso S 27 14 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 12 14 4
Kenrich Williams 23 6 8 4
Jaylin Williams 14 5 8 3
Isaiah Joe 25 3 4 0
Dillon Jones 8 2 1 0
Adam Flagler 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 20 9 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 19 3 2
Santi Aldama 25 18 6 4
Ja Morant S 36 16 5 7
GG Jackson 20 11 1 0
Vince Williams Jr. 15 7 0 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 8 6 2 0
Zach Edey S 13 5 2 0
Brandon Clarke 22 5 7 1
Luke Kennard 16 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
16%
2 Ja Morant MEM
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC
10%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
10%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 34.1 3.6 8.1
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.9 4.9 5.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.4 5.2 3.2
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.0 5.4 6.3
5 Ja Morant MEM 21.6 4.1 7.3
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.8 4.4 2.1
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.8 2.7 1.5
8 Luke Kennard MEM 11.7 2.8 3.9
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.6 10.4 4.7
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.6 5.3 1.5
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.1 2.7 1.8
12 Zach Edey MEM 9.6 8.2 1.4
13 GG Jackson MEM 8.8 3.5 1.2
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.4 7.3 2.5
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.0 4.9 1.3
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.1 3.1 3.7
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 2.8 2.7
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 3.6 1.3
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.6 3.4 2.5
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 1.9 0.7
21 John Konchar MEM 3.9 4.9 0.9
22 Zyon Pullin MEM 3.4 1.6 1.0
23 Alex Ducas OKC 3.1 1.7 0.6
24 Jay Huff MEM 3.1 1.5 0.6
25 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 2.4 1.2
26 Adam Flagler OKC 2.5 1.2 0.6
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.4 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.