NBA games

GS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
132–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34214235132
CHI31382517111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CHI
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 34 4 6
Jimmy Butler III S 29 25 2 4
Quinten Post S 20 18 3 2
Brandin Podziemski 29 16 5 7
Buddy Hield S 28 14 5 3
Gui Santos 15 7 8 0
Draymond Green S 32 6 4 7
Moses Moody 22 4 0 2
Gary Payton II 9 2 2 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 27 4 4
Matas Buzelis S 29 16 4 5
Jalen Smith 19 15 3 0
Josh Giddey S 31 11 6 4
Nikola Vucevic S 29 10 4 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 30 10 1 4
Patrick Williams 20 8 2 0
Dalen Terry 4 7 0 0
Kevin Huerter 19 4 4 1
Julian Phillips 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three pointer (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Buddy Hield GS
8%
6 Coby White CHI
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
11%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.0 3.7 6.6
2 Coby White CHI 19.9 3.5 5.4
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.9 9.8 4.9
4 Josh Giddey CHI 16.7 6.7 6.2
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 14.9 4.5 4.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.2 3.1 4.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 4.2 3.8
8 Moses Moody GS 12.7 3.7 2.1
9 Patrick Williams CHI 11.2 4.8 2.1
10 Buddy Hield GS 9.9 3.3 2.3
11 Draymond Green GS 9.6 5.2 5.2
12 Matas Buzelis CHI 9.5 4.1 1.0
13 Quinten Post GS 8.1 3.9 2.1
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 5.9 1.2
15 Gui Santos GS 6.5 3.3 1.5
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.3 3.3 1.5
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.6 2.0
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.6 5.7 1.6
19 Tre Jones CHI 5.1 1.4 2.9
20 Pat Spencer GS 4.8 2.3 1.7
21 Jackson Rowe GS 4.2 2.9 1.0
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.2 1.0
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.4 1.4 1.3
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 2.0 0.7
25 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.4 0.8 0.8
26 Kevin Huerter CHI 3.0 0.9 0.9
27 Zach Collins CHI 2.2 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.