NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26374121125
WSH30282528111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 35 2 14
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 18 1 1
Georges Niang S 26 16 6 3
Larry Nance Jr. 22 14 6 1
Vit Krejci 32 12 8 7
Dyson Daniels S 35 11 9 4
Caris LeVert 15 9 3 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 26 6 5 3
Terance Mann 25 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 38 23 4 7
Jordan Poole S 31 21 5 6
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 17 7 0
Corey Kispert 35 13 7 5
Justin Champagnie S 25 10 8 0
Richaun Holmes S 30 10 8 2
Tristan Vukcevic 14 8 8 1
Malcolm Brogdon 23 7 3 4
AJ Johnson 7 2 1 1
Jaylen Martin 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Justin Champagnie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Justin Champagnie makes two point shot (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
15%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
10 Caris LeVert ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
39%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.5 3.0 12.1
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.0 4.3 5.8
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.1 7.1 6.2
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.2 5.2 4.2
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.9 9.5 3.2
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 13.0 3.9 5.2
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.6 3.9 1.6
8 Corey Kispert WSH 12.1 3.3 1.7
9 Vit Krejci ATL 10.7 3.6 2.6
10 Kyshawn George WSH 10.6 3.9 2.2
11 Alex Sarr WSH 10.5 6.3 1.6
12 Georges Niang ATL 9.4 3.5 1.2
13 Bub Carrington WSH 9.2 2.7 3.5
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 8.1 2.1 2.8
15 Caris LeVert ATL 7.3 3.2 3.5
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.0 4.3 1.5
17 Richaun Holmes WSH 6.1 5.8 1.4
18 Terance Mann ATL 6.0 3.1 1.5
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.4 2.4 0.9
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.3 2.8 0.9
21 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.8 2.0 1.0
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.2 2.6 0.6
23 Jaylen Martin WSH 4.2 1.6 0.7
24 AJ Johnson WSH 3.6 1.6 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.