NBA games

SA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30302823111
ORL32252431112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ORL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 34 25 2 3
Harrison Barnes S 36 21 8 1
Victor Wembanyama S 31 18 9 4
Stephon Castle 29 15 3 2
Keldon Johnson 18 10 4 0
De'Aaron Fox S 34 9 3 9
Jeremy Sochan 19 7 2 3
Chris Paul S 27 6 2 5
Julian Champagnie 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 33 12 5
Anthony Black 27 20 1 1
Paolo Banchero S 34 17 7 6
Jonathan Isaac 18 14 8 0
Cole Anthony S 21 13 0 2
Wendell Carter Jr. 11 7 2 3
Tristan da Silva 18 3 2 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 3 3 1
Goga Bitadze S 26 2 9 0
Gary Harris 17 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cole Anthony · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
62%
Jumper
10%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.0 11.6 3.5
2 Franz Wagner ORL 26.8 5.3 4.3
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.0 7.1 6.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.9 4.1 6.6
5 Stephon Castle SA 19.8 4.5 3.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 3.7 3.0
7 Cole Anthony ORL 14.2 4.3 3.9
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.6 4.9 2.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.0 7.7 3.2
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.7 2.7 3.0
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.0 3.7 2.0
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.9 2.7 1.6
13 Chris Paul SA 9.4 3.3 6.7
14 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.4 5.9 1.9
15 Keldon Johnson SA 8.7 3.0 1.1
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.4 7.4 1.7
17 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 2.7 1.4
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.5 5.2 0.9
19 Julian Champagnie SA 5.4 2.9 1.3
20 Gary Harris ORL 5.2 1.5 1.0
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.1 2.1 1.0
22 Jett Howard ORL 5.1 1.8 1.0
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.9 1.4 0.6
24 Cory Joseph ORL 3.9 1.2 1.2
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.7 0.6 0.6
26 Malaki Branham SA 1.7 0.5 0.3
27 Blake Wesley SA 1.5 0.8 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.