Saturday, February 8, 2025

IND @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final

117–124

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IND	22	28	34	33	117
LAL	44	22	28	30	124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (IND) games this season

IND away

home LAL

23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Pascal Siakam S	33	23	6	4	6/15	0/2	-6
Tyrese Haliburton S	36	19	2	9	7/15	4/9	-9
Bennedict Mathurin S	25	16	5	0	5/12	1/3	-10
Obi Toppin	22	14	5	3	4/8	3/5	-21
Thomas Bryant S	23	13	8	4	6/10	1/3	13
T.J. McConnell	13	12	1	1	3/6	0/1	0
Ben Sheppard	28	10	3	1	3/6	3/5	9
Aaron Nesmith	21	6	5	2	3/9	0/6	7
Andrew Nembhard S	22	2	0	3	0/1	0/1	-11
Jarace Walker	17	2	3	0	0/5	0/3	-7

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Austin Reaves S	41	45	7	7	14/26	4/9	14
Rui Hachimura S	33	24	9	0	8/13	2/3	4
Gabe Vincent S	25	12	0	7	5/13	2/8	5
Jordan Goodwin	25	10	4	1	4/7	1/2	1
Jaxson Hayes S	29	9	12	2	4/4	0/0	3
Trey Jemison III	12	8	1	1	4/5	0/0	-7
Dorian Finney-Smith S	35	7	3	6	3/8	1/5	11
Jarred Vanderbilt	20	4	6	1	2/4	0/2	5
Markieff Morris	6	3	1	0	1/4	1/3	3
Shake Milton	15	2	3	4	1/4	0/1	-4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Bennedict Mathurin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:56 Q1

"Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup (Thomas Bryant assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Austin Reaves LAL

15%

2 Bennedict Mathurin IND

14%

3 Pascal Siakam IND

14%

4 Rui Hachimura LAL

14%

5 Tyrese Haliburton IND

13%

6 Jaxson Hayes LAL

11%

7 Andrew Nembhard IND

10%

8 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL

9 Thomas Bryant IND

10 Obi Toppin IND

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

18%

Dunk

Free Throw

16%

Jumper

38%

Layup

23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Pascal Siakam	IND	23.6	7.3	4.2	23	6	4
2	Austin Reaves	LAL	20.7	4.6	6.7	45	7	7
3	Tyrese Haliburton	IND	15.9	3.8	6.4	19	2	9
4	Rui Hachimura	LAL	15.9	5.0	1.9	24	9	0
5	Bennedict Mathurin	IND	15.4	4.6	1.9	16	5	0
6	Andrew Nembhard	IND	12.9	3.8	5.6	2	0	3
7	Gabe Vincent	LAL	9.8	2.1	2.2	12	0	7
8	Obi Toppin	IND	7.9	3.5	1.2	14	5	3
9	Dorian Finney-Smith	LAL	7.8	3.0	1.4	7	3	6
10	Aaron Nesmith	IND	7.7	2.6	1.4	6	5	2
11	Thomas Bryant	IND	7.6	4.0	1.3	13	8	4
12	T.J. McConnell	IND	7.6	3.0	4.5	12	1	1
13	Ben Sheppard	IND	6.8	2.6	1.7	10	3	1
14	Jaxson Hayes	LAL	6.5	4.6	1.4	9	12	2
15	Jarred Vanderbilt	LAL	4.8	6.0	1.3	4	6	1
16	Jarace Walker	IND	4.6	3.2	1.2	2	3	0
17	Shake Milton	LAL	4.1	2.1	1.7	2	3	4
18	Christian Koloko	LAL	3.5	2.6	0.9	—	—	—
19	Quenton Jackson	IND	3.2	1.1	1.0	—	—	—
20	Trey Jemison III	LAL	2.4	2.9	0.6	8	1	1
21	Enrique Freeman	IND	2.0	1.0	0.5	—	—	—
22	James Johnson	IND	1.8	1.0	0.6	—	—	—
23	Johnny Furphy	IND	1.7	0.8	0.4	—	—	—
24	Markieff Morris	LAL	1.5	0.8	0.4	3	1	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.