NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU20283324105
DAL33322427116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 38 30 8 3
Jalen Green S 41 24 3 6
Amen Thompson S 37 20 7 5
Dillon Brooks S 37 9 3 3
Tari Eason S 30 8 6 1
Cam Whitmore 20 7 4 1
Reed Sheppard 7 3 3 0
Steven Adams 22 2 12 1
Aaron Holiday 3 2 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 31 26 16 7
Max Christie 33 23 2 2
Naji Marshall 25 16 4 0
Kyrie Irving S 42 13 2 6
Klay Thompson S 22 13 4 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 24 10 0 1
P.J. Washington S 16 6 3 1
Daniel Gafford S 26 5 9 1
Dante Exum 21 4 2 3
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
8%
5 Anthony Davis DAL
8%
6 Jalen Green HOU
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
5%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
5%
10 Kessler Edwards DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
39%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.2 4.8 5.1
2 Anthony Davis DAL 24.8 12.7 3.0
3 Jalen Green HOU 23.0 4.2 4.8
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.2 10.5 5.6
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.0 8.7 6.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 19.5 10.2 3.4
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 16.4 10.4 2.5
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.3 3.7 1.5
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.5 5.8 1.9
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.3 2.8 5.3
11 Klay Thompson DAL 13.0 3.6 2.6
12 Naji Marshall DAL 13.0 4.1 3.5
13 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.8 2.9 3.9
14 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 6.0 1.7
15 Dante Exum DAL 11.1 2.1 3.1
16 Max Christie DAL 11.1 4.3 2.2
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.9 3.8 1.6
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.5 1.3
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.4 3.5 1.4
20 Steven Adams HOU 6.0 6.5 1.3
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.2 1.3 1.3
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.0 2.1 1.1
23 Kessler Edwards DAL 4.7 3.5 1.1
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.3 2.4 1.1
25 Kylor Kelley DAL 4.2 3.3 0.5
26 Jeff Green HOU 3.9 1.2 0.5
27 Jock Landale HOU 3.9 2.5 0.9
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.