NBA games

TOR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
109–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25222933109
OKC35233231121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home OKC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 21 5 4
Gradey Dick S 28 17 7 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 12 2 1
Jamison Battle 15 11 2 1
Chris Boucher 15 11 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo S 28 10 4 3
Ochai Agbaji S 30 8 8 1
Jamal Shead 22 7 3 6
Orlando Robinson 17 6 5 4
Immanuel Quickley S 28 6 4 10
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 33 27 5 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 25 4 6
Aaron Wiggins S 33 18 3 2
Isaiah Joe 25 16 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 12 6 2
Alex Caruso 20 12 6 4
Jaylin Williams 17 4 6 3
Chet Holmgren S 22 4 5 1
Branden Carlson 2 2 1 0
Dillon Jones 9 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
25%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 3.9 7.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.8 5.0 5.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 7.2 6.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.9 8.8 2.1
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.2 2.6 5.6
6 Gradey Dick TOR 12.9 3.2 1.8
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.9 4.6 2.1
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.5 8.5 3.1
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.3 10.8 4.3
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.1 2.7 1.5
11 Jamal Shead TOR 8.3 1.8 3.4
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.3 7.1 2.3
13 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 3.9 0.6
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.0 3.1 1.1
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.7 2.0 1.4
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.8 2.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 3.6 1.1
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.7 2.8 0.9
19 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 1.6 0.8
20 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.4 2.3 0.6
21 Alex Ducas OKC 2.9 1.6 0.6
22 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 2.3 1.1
23 Branden Carlson OKC 2.7 1.3 0.4
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.5 1.2 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.